Several researchers and economists are predicting that President Donald Trump is on track for a landslide victory in 2020.
A new report from Politico’s Ben White and Steven Shepard features several economic models from experts showing that Trump will “likely ride to a second term in a huge landslide.”
Donald Luskin, the chief investment officer for TrendMacrolytics, told Politico that “the economy is just so damn strong right now and by all historic precedent the incumbent should run away with it.”
Luskin, who predicted Trump’s win in the 2016 presidential election based on his economic models, said the booming economy could pave the way for the president to easily win re-election.
“The economy is just so damn strong right now and by all historic precedent the incumbent should run away with it. I just don’t see how the blue wall could resist all that,” Luskin said.
“It would have to slow a lot to still be not pretty good,” Luskin said.
Here’s more from the Politico report:
Luskin’s current model — which looks at GDP growth, gas prices, inflation, disposable income, tax burden and payrolls — has Trump winning by a blowout margin of 294 electoral votes.
The White House remains confident that the GOP tax cut will support growth of 3 percent both this year and next, keeping job and wage gains strong. That’s much higher than consensus forecasts from the Federal Reserve and major banks that generally see a global slowdown led by Europe and China, coupled with the fading impact of U.S. tax cuts pushing U.S. growth closer to 2 percent this year with job gains slowing.
But Trump may have one major ally in his quest to make sure the numbers don’t go much lower than this: the Fed, which recently stopped its campaign of interest rate hikes. And on Wednesday the central bank said it foresees no more rate hikes this year.
Yale economist Ray Fair, who also predicted Trump’s victory in 2016, echoed a similar message about the president cruising to a second term in office.
“Even if you have a mediocre but not great economy — and that’s more or less consensus for between now and the election — that has a Trump victory and by a not-trivial margin,” Fair said.
Fair told Politico that he predicts Trump will win the 2020 election with 54 percent of the popular vote while the Democratic nominee will only get 46 percent.
If true, that would be gigantic, especially given Democrats are currently pushing for the Electoral College to be abolished.
“Fair’s model states that presidential incumbents have an advantage in an election and that the state of the economy also affects the outcome of an election. He also says that voters are less likely to vote for a party that has held the White House for two terms,” Politico reports.
Mark Zandi, the chief economist for Moody’s Analytics, was the third expert to predict that Trump will win in 2020.
Zandi told Politico that he tested 12 different economic models for the upcoming presidential race. and found that Trump won all 12.
Quite amazing to see how the narrative seems to be shifting ahead of 2020.
Media outlets, pollsters, and liberal taking heads have been railing against Trump and covering him negatively for over two years.
But now, many are coming around to the realization that many Americans support the president, his agenda, and what he has accomplished since taking office.