As the 2020 Presidential election nears, polling experts have begun to predict what will happen in 2020 and have been trying to determine what President Trump’s chances of winning re-election are.
According to many of these experts, President Trump’s chances of getting re-elected are very high. One of these analysts is American University professor Allan Lichtman who said that the only way President Trump loses is if Democrats “grow a spine” and impeach him.
“It’s a false dichotomy to say Democrats have a choice between doing what is right and what is constitutional and what is politically right. Impeachment is also politically right,” Lichtman said to CNN on Wednesday.
Check out what the Daily Wire reported:
Lichtman has correctly predicted the last nine presidential elections, dating back to 1984.
Lichtman is not alone in predicting Trump will win; however, he is alone in suggesting impeachment could stop the president’s re-election.
On May 21, Politico reported on three separate election models that all predict Trump will win re-election thanks to the roaring U.S. economy. Donald Luskin, chief investment officer at TrendMacrolytics, told the media outlet that the “economy is just so damn strong right now and by all historic precedent the incumbent should run away with it.”
Many other election polling experts also think that President Trump will win in 2020.
According to Steven Rattner, former counselor to the Treasury secretary for the Obama Administration, President Trump’s chances of re-election based off of three different models is very strong.
Rattner’s article which was published in the New York Times, gathers three different models that summarize President Trump’s performance and how it would translate to the 2020 election.
The first and best model that was cited was from Ray Fair who is a professor at Yale.
Check out what Rattner had to say:
[Fair] found that the growth rates of gross domestic product and inflation have been the two most important economic predictors — but he also found that incumbency was also an important determinant of presidential election outcomes.